THE FOUR-MINUTE VERSION
Top story: Hagerty's September report says 70% of $1M-plus cars carried a reserve, down from 84% a year earlier. More top-end cars are being left to the room.
Price move: September auction volume rose 41% year over year. The average sale price is up 30%, the median only 7%. The Hagerty Market Rating is 58.73, essentially flat.
Crossing the block: Broad Arrow's 86-car Las Vegas sale. Its ten headline lots carry about $70M in low estimates, led by a Ferrari F50 "in excess of $20,000,000."
Watch: Saturday, Oct. 31: RM Sotheby's London and Broad Arrow Las Vegas, same day. We grade our London calls Nov. 2.
We could not verify any new major hammer prices since yesterday's issue, so we are not going to invent one. We also could not find published results for RM Sotheby's Sealed October or today's Iconic Auctioneers online sale. What did land is Hagerty's September monthly report, and it adds a useful twist to Saturday.
The Number: 70%
Share of $1M-plus cars carrying a reserve, September 2026 · a year earlier: 84% · Hagerty Monthly Market Report, published Oct. 21
That is the figure to hold onto this weekend. Hagerty reports that only 70% of cars selling for $1 million or more carried a reserve, down from 84% a year earlier, and says stronger top-end demand has led more consignors to offer cars with no reserve. Here is the rest of the September snapshot:
Measure | September 2026 | Context |
|---|---|---|
$1M+ cars with a reserve | 70% | 84% a year earlier |
Hagerty Market Rating | 58.73 | Down 0.01; 50–60 is "flat market" territory |
Auction volume | +41% year over year | New Barrett-Jackson and RM Sotheby's sales, a revived Kruse Fall Auburn |
Average sale price | +30% year over year | Median sale price: +7% |
$1M+ online sales | 12 online vs. 8 live | Online venues out-sold live rooms at the top |
Ferrari | About $730M | Nearly half of the $1.6B-plus year-over-year rise in global auction sales |
1990s and newer cars | +8 points of dollar share | Gaining share in 2026 |
Our read: two things. First, the gap between a 30% rise in the average and a 7% rise in the median says the money is at the top, not across the market, which fits yesterday's index table. Second, fewer reserves changes how you read Saturday. A reserve hides a weak bid: the car simply goes unsold. Without one, a weak bid becomes a printed price. If Hagerty's trend holds in the rooms, we should see more hammer prices below estimate and fewer passes than the old pattern would have produced, so a low sale price is not automatically a sign of a falling market. It may just be a more honest one. Caveat: this is Hagerty's summary, and we have not seen the underlying data or how it counts online sales.
Crossing the Block: Las Vegas's Headline Stack
Broad Arrow's Las Vegas Auction runs Saturday at Wynn Las Vegas with 86 cars. These are the ten lots its release leads with. Estimates are the house's, not results.
Lot | Estimate |
|---|---|
1997 Ferrari F50 | In excess of $20,000,000 |
2025 Ferrari Daytona SP3 | $16,000,000–$18,000,000 |
2014 Ferrari LaFerrari | $8,500,000–$10,000,000 |
2003 Ferrari Enzo | $6,500,000–$8,500,000 |
1971 Lamborghini Miura P400 SV | $6,000,000–$7,000,000 |
2023 Bugatti Chiron Super Sport | $4,300,000–$4,700,000 |
2015 McLaren P1 GTR by Lanzante | $3,200,000–$3,500,000 |
2019 Koenigsegg Regera | $2,500,000–$3,000,000 |
1994 Bugatti EB110 GT | $1,900,000–$2,200,000 |
2001 Ferrari 550 Barchetta Pininfarina | $1,100,000–$1,300,000 |
The 1971 Lamborghini Miura P400 SV, estimated at $6–7 million at Broad Arrow's Las Vegas Auction on Oct. 31. Photo: Courtesy of Broad Arrow Auctions.
Our read: added up, the ten low estimates come to $70.0 million, and the high estimates to about $78 million if you count the F50 at its $20 million floor, since Broad Arrow has not given it a ceiling. That is a lot of the sale resting on a few cars. Three are worth a closer look. The F50 tests Hagerty's Q3 data directly, since Hagerty has the F50 up 20% on the quarter. The Miura SV, according to Modern Car Collector's Oct. 27 preview, sits near a record set in March for an unrestored, single-owner car, while this one was restored after a Brazilian ownership history, so the question is whether the premium for originality has a ceiling. And the P1 GTR is a Lanzante road conversion with 433 miles, number 018 of 58, so its $3.2–3.5 million estimate assumes the conversion adds value rather than subtracting it.
One gap: the release we read does not say which of these lots are offered without reserve, so we cannot tell you how much of the 70% trend applies on Saturday.
Also on the radar, with no prices yet: a customs auction in Manila takes sealed bids on Oct. 30 for seized vehicles including a 2021 McLaren Senna and a 2022 Ferrari SF90 Stradale. The report gives no mileage, condition or seizure history, and a starting bid is not a value estimate. Separately, about 17 vehicles forfeited in a North Texas wire fraud case are headed to a U.S. Marshals sale; the date and estimates were not public when Modern Car Collector wrote it up.
The Deep Dive: What a No-Reserve Sale Can and Can't Tell You
Reserves shape what an auction result means. Three habits help when you read Saturday's numbers.
Separate prices from passes. On a reserve lot, "not sold" tells you the bid fell short of the consignor's number, not where the market is. On a no-reserve lot, the hammer is the market for that night. Do not compare the two directly.
Count the lots, not just the headline. A sale total can be carried by two or three cars. Ask how many of the ten headline lots found buyers and how many cleared the low estimate, before you accept any "record" claim.
Mind the lag. Hagerty's September report describes September. It cannot tell you what a room full of bidders will do on Oct. 31. Treat it as a prior, not a forecast.
For the calls we published Monday, the table below is unchanged. We grade it Nov. 2.
Lot | Estimate | Our call |
|---|---|---|
Ferrari 250 GT Lusso (127) | £750–950K | Above high estimate |
Ferrari F40 | £1.8–2.4M | Within estimate, lower half |
Aston Martin Valkyrie | £1.8–2.4M | Within estimate, near the low end |
Porsche 911 Carrera RS 3.8 (137) | £800K–1M | Within estimate, upper half |
Mercedes-Benz 300 SL Roadster | £1.1–1.3M | Below low estimate, or unsold |
One Thing Worth Watching
How many of Broad Arrow's ten headline lots sell, and how many clear the low estimate. We are putting the test in writing before the sale. If most of the ten sell at or above their low estimates, Hagerty's top-end story has live support, even with fewer reserves protecting sellers. If several pass or sell under the low estimate, the room is telling a cooler story than the index, and we will say so in Monday's issue. London's no-reserve 458 Speciale pair, sold the same day, gives a second read.
On the calendar
Date | Sale | Where |
|---|---|---|
Oct. 29 | Iconic Auctioneers online auction | Online |
Oct. 30 | Manila customs auction, sealed bids (McLaren Senna, SF90 Stradale) | Manila |
Oct. 31 | RM Sotheby's, The London Auction (4:00 pm GMT) | The Peninsula, London |
Oct. 31 | Broad Arrow, The Las Vegas Auction (86 cars) | Wynn Las Vegas |
Nov. 2 | We grade our London calls | This newsletter |
Nov. 7 | Broad Arrow, The Zürich Auction | Dolder Grand, Zürich |
Nov. 20 | RM Sotheby's, The Munich Auction | Munich |
Nov. 20–21 | Gooding Christie's, Rétromobile New York (1967 Ferrari 275 NART Spider ex-Steve McQueen, est. $15–20M) | New York |
Sources: Hagerty, Monthly Market Report: September 2026 (Oct. 21) · Broad Arrow, Las Vegas Auction release · Modern Car Collector via Yahoo Autos (Oct. 27) · RM Sotheby's, The London Auction · Hagerty, Price Guide indexes (Oct. 22). Estimates are pre-sale figures published by auction houses, not results. Our reads are opinion. Nothing here is investment advice.